I work where decisions are made: I find the one that matters, build what it needs, and measure what changed. The work below is public, built on open data in my own time, and held to the same standard.
The 11:00 forecast of tomorrow’s electricity price is prepared before bids close to support bidding decisions. The results below are from the 15:00 forecast.
46 scored days up to 09.10.2026, 33.2% less error than the best simple rule. The bar is 60 scored days. Tomorrow’s price is published before the forecast is made; the forecast does not use it, and neither do the simple rules, so the record tests the method. Not yet evidence, and here is why.
For decisions that differ by region: the data of 81 provinces, in one atlas.
A nirengi is the survey operation that fixes the position of points with triangles.
TodayNext statistical bulletins12.10.202622 due · publication calendar of 10.10.202610.10.2026
57 verified sources · 81 provinces · latest successful data collection: 10.10.2026 04:42 UTC
Verified source: a source whose licence, address and values have been checked by hand.
On the Veri Durumu page, “latest successful data collection” shows when data collection last finished successfully for each source, while on the home page card it shows the latest of those times; all times are in UTC, and the time on the card does not mean data from every source was collected then.
An operations controller's two-hour warning: flight delays, measured.
BTS · ranking score: model 0.843 (0.718 without any aircraft information), table of past averages 0.686 · months not used to train the model: February–July 2026
I rebuilt my 2019 master's graduation project, correcting one flaw at a time. I first measured its ranking score on predicted probabilities; each fix after that lowered the value a little further. That is what I wanted to show.
Ranking score: 0.669 for the 2019 setup rerun on August 2025 flights, using yes/no predictions as in the original project · 0.749 using predicted probabilities on the same flights · 0.695 after the fixes
Each time shown is the one its work recorded. This page re-reads the works daily at 10:15 and 15:30 TRT, and Seyir’s card again whenever the page opens. A figure past its window is not shown.From a question to a running systemThe factory
KerterizA kerteriz is taking a compass bearing to fix where something is. Here site selection is done from publicly available geodata. In progress.